The following table presents data on the United States presidential elections. Each row shows information on the winner of the presidency and the winner's strongest opponent.
This data shows that in 2004, Bush had the weakest margin of victory by which a U. S. president has ever been re-elected.
Votes are counted in thousands (given the margin of error and the discrepancies among the different sources i used, it didn't seem justified to report significance down to single votes). "VAP" stands for "voting-age population". "EVs" stands for "electoral votes". The blue column along the right side shows the total number of votes cast, together with its percentage of VAP (thus providing a measure of the turnout). The bold green rows are years that the president was re-elected; the italic red rows are years that the president was defeated by a challenger.
The central orange column shows the margins of victory measured as a percentage of the popular vote. In 2004, Bush won by 3.1%, which is the smallest bold number in that column. You can also see that the percentage of the voting-age population that voted for Kerry is the highest for any defeated challenger since 1960; based on the rest of the popular vote percentages, it's likely that a larger fraction of eligible voters voted for Kerry than any defeated challenger in history.
Year | Winner | Votes | % Votes | % VAP | EVs | Margin | Opponent | Votes | % Votes | % VAP | EVs | Voters | % VAP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1789 | Washington (F) | 69 | Adams (F) | 34 | |||||||||
1792 | Washington (F) | 132 | Adams (F) | 77 | |||||||||
1796 | Adams (F) | 71 | Jefferson (D-R) | 68 | |||||||||
1800 | Jefferson (D-R) | 73 | Burr (D-R) | 73 | |||||||||
1804 | Jefferson (D-R) | 162 | Pinckney (F) | 14 | |||||||||
1808 | Madison (D-R) | 122 | Pinckney (F) | 47 | |||||||||
1812 | Madison (D-R) | 128 | Clinton (F) | 89 | |||||||||
1816 | Monroe (D-R) | 183 | King (F) | 34 | |||||||||
1820 | Monroe (D-R) | 231 | Adams (N-R) | 1 | |||||||||
1824 | Adams (Coalition) | 88 | 29.4% | 84 | -9.8% | Jackson (D-R) | 117 | 39.2% | 99 | 299 | |||
1828 | Jackson (D) | 579 | 53.5% | 178 | 7.5% | Adams (N-R) | 498 | 46.0% | 83 | 1081 | |||
1832 | Jackson (D) | 676 | 53.3% | 219 | 15.1% | Clay (N-R) | 484 | 38.2% | 49 | 1268 | |||
1836 | Van Buren (D) | 750 | 50.3% | 170 | 0.6% | Harrison (W) | 741 | 49.6% | 73 | 1492 | |||
1840 | Harrison (W) | 1275 | 52.9% | 234 | 6.1% | Van Buren (D) | 1129 | 46.8% | 60 | 2412 | |||
1844 | Polk (D) | 1339 | 49.5% | 170 | 1.5% | Clay (W) | 1300 | 48.1% | 105 | 2704 | |||
1848 | Taylor (W) | 1361 | 47.3% | 163 | 4.8% | Cass (D) | 1223 | 42.5% | 127 | 2879 | |||
1852 | Pierce (D) | 1602 | 50.7% | 254 | 6.8% | Scott (W) | 1387 | 43.9% | 42 | 3162 | |||
1856 | Buchanan (D) | 1836 | 45.3% | 174 | 12.2% | Fremont (R) | 1342 | 33.1% | 114 | 4055 | |||
1860 | Lincoln (R) | 1866 | 39.8% | 180 | 23.0% | Breckinridge (D) | 788 | 16.8% | 72 | 4685 | |||
1864 | Lincoln (R) | 2218 | 55.0% | 212 | 10.1% | McClellan (D) | 1813 | 45.0% | 21 | 4032 | |||
1868 | Grant (R) | 3014 | 52.7% | 214 | 5.3% | Seymour (D) | 2709 | 47.3% | 80 | 5722 | |||
1872 | Grant (R) | 3598 | 55.5% | 286 | 11.7% | Greeley (D-LR) | 2842 | 43.8% | 0 | 6482 | |||
1876 | Hayes (R) | 4034 | 48.0% | 185 | -3.0% | Tilden (D) | 4289 | 51.0% | 184 | 8413 | |||
1880 | Garfield (R) | 4446 | 48.3% | 214 | 0.0% | Hancock (D) | 4444 | 48.3% | 155 | 9210 | |||
1884 | Cleveland (D) | 4875 | 48.5% | 219 | 0.3% | Blaine (R) | 4849 | 48.2% | 182 | 10050 | |||
1888 | Harrison (R) | 5444 | 47.8% | 233 | -0.8% | Cleveland (D) | 5534 | 48.6% | 168 | 11383 | |||
1892 | Cleveland (D) | 5552 | 46.1% | 277 | 3.1% | Harrison (R) | 5179 | 43.0% | 145 | 12057 | |||
1896 | McKinley (R) | 7108 | 51.0% | 271 | 4.2% | Bryan (D-P) | 6520 | 46.8% | 176 | 13936 | |||
1900 | McKinley (R) | 7218 | 51.7% | 292 | 6.9% | Bryan (D-P) | 6256 | 44.8% | 155 | 13970 | |||
1904 | Roosevelt (R) | 7627 | 56.4% | 336 | 18.8% | Parker (D) | 5083 | 37.6% | 140 | 13519 | |||
1908 | Taft (R) | 7676 | 51.6% | 321 | 8.5% | Bryan (D) | 6407 | 43.0% | 162 | 14883 | |||
1912 | Wilson (D) | 6293 | 41.8% | 435 | 14.4% | Roosevelt (P) | 4120 | 27.4% | 88 | 15041 | |||
1916 | Wilson (D) | 9126 | 49.2% | 277 | 3.1% | Hughes (R) | 8547 | 46.1% | 254 | 18533 | |||
1920 | Harding (R) | 16171 | 60.3% | 404 | 26.2% | Cox (D) | 9140 | 34.1% | 127 | 26798 | |||
1924 | Coolidge (R) | 15718 | 54.1% | 382 | 25.2% | Davis (D) | 8386 | 28.8% | 136 | 29076 | |||
1928 | Hoover (R) | 21373 | 58.1% | 444 | 17.3% | Smith (D) | 15000 | 40.8% | 87 | 36790 | |||
1932 | Roosevelt (D) | 22825 | 57.4% | 472 | 17.8% | Hoover (R) | 15758 | 39.6% | 59 | 39747 | |||
1936 | Roosevelt (D) | 27748 | 60.8% | 523 | 24.2% | Landon (R) | 16680 | 36.5% | 8 | 45642 | |||
1940 | Roosevelt (D) | 27263 | 54.7% | 449 | 9.9% | Willkie (R) | 22306 | 44.8% | 82 | 49840 | |||
1944 | Roosevelt (D) | 25594 | 53.4% | 432 | 7.5% | Dewey (R) | 22005 | 45.9% | 99 | 47967 | |||
1948 | Truman (D) | 24106 | 49.5% | 303 | 4.4% | Dewey (R) | 21970 | 45.1% | 189 | 48692 | |||
1952 | Eisenhower (R) | 33936 | 55.1% | 442 | 10.8% | Stevenson (D) | 27315 | 44.4% | 89 | 61551 | |||
1956 | Eisenhower (R) | 35585 | 57.4% | 457 | 15.4% | Stevenson (D) | 26030 | 42.0% | 73 | 62025 | |||
1960 | Kennedy (D) | 34200 | 49.7% | 31.3% | 303 | 0.2% | Nixon (R) | 34088 | 49.6% | 31.2% | 219 | 68783 | 63.0% |
1964 | Johnson (D) | 42957 | 61.0% | 37.7% | 486 | 22.4% | Goldwater (R) | 27149 | 38.5% | 23.8% | 52 | 70443 | 61.7% |
1968 | Nixon (R) | 31759 | 43.6% | 26.4% | 301 | 0.9% | Humphrey (D) | 31136 | 42.7% | 25.9% | 191 | 72906 | 60.6% |
1972 | Nixon (R) | 47169 | 59.9% | 33.5% | 520 | 22.9% | McGovern (D) | 29171 | 37.1% | 20.7% | 17 | 78727 | 55.9% |
1976 | Carter (D) | 40826 | 50.1% | 26.8% | 297 | 2.1% | Ford (R) | 39148 | 48.0% | 25.7% | 240 | 81556 | 53.5% |
1980 | Reagan (R) | 43902 | 50.7% | 26.7% | 489 | 9.7% | Carter (D) | 35484 | 41.0% | 21.6% | 49 | 86515 | 52.6% |
1984 | Reagan (R) | 54455 | 58.8% | 31.2% | 525 | 18.2% | Mondale (D) | 37577 | 40.6% | 21.5% | 13 | 92653 | 53.1% |
1988 | Bush (R) | 47946 | 52.3% | 26.2% | 426 | 7.6% | Dukakis (D) | 41016 | 44.8% | 22.4% | 111 | 91595 | 50.1% |
1992 | Clinton (D) | 44908 | 43.0% | 23.7% | 370 | 5.6% | Bush (R) | 39102 | 37.5% | 20.6% | 168 | 104405 | 55.1% |
1996 | Clinton (D) | 45591 | 47.3% | 23.2% | 379 | 8.1% | Dole (R) | 37816 | 39.2% | 19.2% | 159 | 96456 | 49.1% |
2000 | Bush (R) | 50456 | 47.9% | 24.1% | 271 | -0.5% | Gore (D) | 50997 | 48.4% | 24.4% | 266 | 105405 | 50.4% |
2004 | Bush (R) | 58979 | 51.1% | 27.1% | 279 | 3.1% | Kerry (D) | 55384 | 48.0% | 25.4% | 252 | 115428 | 53.0% |
Year | Winner | Votes | % Votes | % VAP | EVs | Margin | Opponent | Votes | % Votes | % VAP | EVs | Voters | % VAP |
Sources: Federal Register data for 1789 to 2000, ICPSR election results for 1824 to 1972, FEC VAP and turnout figures for 1960 to 1996, FEC election results for 2000, Census 2000, Washington Post results for 2004, FEC VAP figures for 2004.
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